Trying to win working class white voters in the California midterm elections

Since the Presidential election in 2016, much has been written about what motivates the working-class white voter. One line of argument is that those who voted for Trump were propelled by economic frustration or, relatedly, by the economic impacts of deindustrialization and the resulting social decay and despair. On the other hand, some have argued that white Americans voted for Trump because they feel threatened by the advances made by racial minorities and are anxious that they will lose their place in this country. Or perhaps it’s a culture war between the liberal coasts and the rest of America. The midterm elections offer the first major opportunity to test those theories. After all the ink spilled and all the theories advanced, what strategies are candidates using to attract working-class white voters?

In testing these theories, one particular California race has caught my attention: the race for the U.S. Congressional Representative from California’s 10th Congressional District. The District is centered on the city of Modesto and includes Manteca, Tracy, and Turlock. Ninety-one percent of the land area of the District is rural according to the U.S. Census Bureau. This is one of the most hotly contested races in the nation, and it is one of the the races predicted to affect which party controls Congress after the midterms.

The 10th District has a substantial number of working-class white voters. The 10th District is 74% white (one race), according to the Census Bureau. Given that the Census Bureau asks separately about race and ethnicity and 44% of the 10th District is Hispanic or Latinx, the percent of the population which is “white – not Hispanic or Latinx” is likely somewhat less than 74% but would still constitute the dominant racial group. Moreover, most of the District is working-class. Eighty-two percent of the population of the 10th District over the age of 25 holds less than a bachelor’s degree, which is one important standard for being working class. Another way class is defined is by income. There is less consensus about what income level makes one working-class, with the upper bound seemingly set somewhere between $50,000 and $100,000. In the 10th District, this would capture between 40% (income $50,000 or less) and 71% ($100,000 or less) of the population. The median household income is $63,223.

How are the candidates of the 10th District attempting to win these working-class majority-white voters? Jeff Denham (R, incumbent) and Josh Harder (D) have engaged in fairly extensive television ad campaigns. The ads mention big political issues, such as abortion, healthcare, and trade, but there is more going on. As several articles have noted, including one in the Modesto Bee, one of the biggest points debated in these ads is whether Harder is truly “from here.” While I was unable to find most of the ads online, this anti-Harder video by the Congressional Leadership Fund contains many of the key points: Harder is a “Bay Area liberal” with “San Francisco values.” Denham repeats these concepts in ad after ad; in fact, I just saw a new one last night. Harder responds with ads which highlight the fact that he grew up in the 10th District (unfortunately, I couldn’t find these online) and depict him as pro-Central Valley, out on the campaign trail among the walnut trees.

It seems that, at least as Denham and Harder see it, the most important issue to white working-class voters is that their representative understands them, that he or she is “one of us.” Harder and Denham’s ads mention but don’t dwell on economic frustration, and they don’t touch on race. They seem focused on the culture war: is Harder on the Valley’s side of the war, or is he a liberal coastal invader trying to “steal our Congressional seat”? (That’s a quote from a Denham ad I saw but couldn’t find online.)

Of course, given the unique political geography of California, the fact that Harder and Denham focus on the culture war over other factors may not reflect the country as a whole. But these two candidates are so convinced of the importance of this issue that they’re spending a significant portion of their ad money (this is reportedly a $6 million race) trying to establish who is on which side of the culture war.

UPDATE: For those of you who are interested, Harder won by the very slim margin of 50.9% to 49.1%